Bond yields can tell us many things, but determining what those things are can be challenging today. Yields have been rising and one positive is that investors appear to be…
Note to Fed: The Phillips Curve Has Left the Building
The Phillips curve, which charts an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation, was proven unreliable during the 1973-1975 recession, when we had stagflation — the combination of high unemployment and…
The Longest Period of Job Growth Ever. So What?
The second longest recovery … the second longest bull market … the longest period of job growth on record. Such records are pretty meaningless. The recovery has been pretty anemic,…
Inflation Almost There, But Interest Rates Are Not
The Federal Reserve Board acknowledged at its meeting last week that the rate of inflation is “almost” at its 2% target level. The last impediment to raising interest rates to…
Welcome to Wonderland
Contrariwise, if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic. …
No Surprises from the Fed
To the surprise of no one, the Federal Reserve Board raised interest rates by 0.25% in March. It was the sixth time since December 2015 that the Federal Open Market…
Central Planners Wrong Again
Based on action by central bankers, the euro should be weakening relative to the dollar, yet just the opposite is happening. The Federal Reserve Board has been raising interest rates…
Deflation Isn’t Always Bad
As we noted yesterday, the Federal Reserve Board’s attempt to avoid deflation has resulted in lowering income for those in the bottom 25% of the income scale. But we likely…
The Ghost of Ben Bernanke
“The good news is bad news.” …
The Case for the Bears
Following yesterday’s case for a continuing bull market, here’s a case for the bears from Martin Feldstein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Reagan. Feldstein wrote in…